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劳动力年龄结构的老化将直接影响产业结构升级。文章基于2012—2020年省级面板数据，构建双边随机前沿模型，测算劳动力老化对产业结构升级的双边效应、净效应。结果表明:首先，劳动力老化会抑制产业结构升级，并使实际产业结构升级水平低于前沿产业结构升级水平2.3%。其中，劳动力老化带来的促进和抑制效应分别使实际产业结构升级水平偏离前沿产业结构升级水平3.71、6.01个百分点。其次，劳动力老化对产业结构升级净效应的时间趋势呈现出净负效应逐渐减弱的特征，地区异质性表明劳动力老化对产业结构升级的净效应在东、中、西部地区均为负，但东部地区净负效应最小、中部次之、西部最大。进一步分析表明，劳动力受教育程度提高使得劳动力老化对产业结构升级的正效应得到强化，从而促使净效应为正，故对于缓解劳动力老化对产业结构升级的抑制作用可通过提高劳动力资源质量来实现。为应对劳动力老化，主要从注重提升劳动力资源质量、引导劳动力合理流动等方面提出对策建议。
Abstract：The aging of the labor force age-structure is likely to exert direct impact on industrial structure upgrading. Based on the provincial panel data from 2012 to 2020,a bilateral stochastic frontier model is constructed to measure the bilateral and net effects of labor force aging on industrial structure upgrading.The results reveal that: firstly,labor force aging inhibits industrial structure upgrading,resulting in the actual level of industrial structure upgrading to be 2. 3% lower than the frontier level. Specifically,the promotion effect and inhibition effect of industrial structure upgrading brought by labor force aging make the actual industrial structure upgrading level deviate from the frontier industrial structure upgrading level by 3. 71 percentage and 6. 01 percentage respectively. Secondly,the time trend of the net effect of labor force aging on industrial structure upgrading is featured by a gradually weakening net negative effect. Regional heterogeneity indicates that the net effect of labor force aging on industrial structure upgrading is negative in the eastern,central,and western regions. However,the net negative effect is the smallest in the eastern region,the largest in the western region and the central region ranks the 2nd. Further analysis shows that the improvement of the educational level of the labor force strengthens the positive effect of labor force aging on industrial structure upgrading,thus making the net effect positive. Therefore,the inhibitory effect of labor force aging on industrial structure upgrading can be alleviated by improving the quality of labor resources.In order to effectively combat labor force aging,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward regarding respects such as focusing on improving the quality of labor resources and guiding the reasonable flow of the labor force in this research.
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(1)参照国际劳工组织的定义，将45—64岁劳动年龄人口定义为老年劳动力，且其在劳动年龄人口中的占比超过15%即出现劳动力老化现象。
基本信息:
DOI：10.13773/j.cnki.51-1637/z.2025.06.004
中图分类号:C924.24;F121.3;F249.2
引用信息:
[1]唐泽莲,郑莉,吴华安.劳动力老化对产业结构升级的影响——基于双边随机前沿模型的分析[J].攀枝花学院学报,2025,42(06):31-46.DOI:10.13773/j.cnki.51-1637/z.2025.06.004.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金西部项目“典型都市圈进城落户新市民可持续生计综合评价及保障政策研究”(19XJY006)